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Go with the up and comers. That way, if it's a hit, then it's everybody's big break. If you go with the established director in a slump, and it's a hit, then it's the director's big comeback.
On the other hand, if you go with the unknown guys, and it fails, nobody'll notice. If it fails with a name attached to it, it'll get noticed, even if it's noticed as "another M. Night Shyamalan" failure or whomever it is directing.
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