[tic]

A few years back (college, i think) the class members had a similar scenario to the one mentioned; the difference was that the man/woman wasn't a friend but an imminent heart surgeon. It was later mentioned (after everybody had picked their choice) that the baby would grow up to be a millionaire who would spend his/her money helping the poor and giving money to medical charities; which would ultimately lead to a cure for Cancer and Aids, thereby saving millions across the globe; which sort of changed the whole scenario.

Without this knowledge most people went on gut instinct.

My own opinion (with or without, the later knowledge gained) was i would have chosen the baby - simply because unless we are extremely psychic, we can't possibly predict anyones future. The baby may go on to be the future president, or the most notorious mass murderer, history has ever known, or catch some virus that could end up in death or extreme disability

The "friend" may die on the operating table, get run over by a bus, die in a car crash while leaving the hospital etc

I think we can't really answer the question until we are ourselves faced with the actual problem.....Let our concience be our guide.